SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS:
- Look for horses rated higher than 142
- Four or more runs over hurdles
- Two or more wins this season
- Won last time, has won a Graded race
- Last year’s Champion Bumper form solid
ASTERION FORLONGE can get the Festival off to a winning start for Willie Mullins.
Official ratings help to cut the field down even though this isn’t a handicap.
Chantry House, Heaven Help Us, Mario De Pail, Jabaar, Whatsnotonknow, Berkshire Royal, Captain Guinness and Hollow Sound are all too low for a Supreme winner.
Elixir D’Ainay falls short on a couple of stats — he hasn’t won twice this season and was beaten last time out. That also accounts for Edwardstone.
Next we’ll cross out any hopeful that hasn’t won a Graded contest. Likely favourite Shiskin and Allart fall by the wayside here.
That leaves us with four left standing. Asterion Forlonge, Fiddlerontheroof, Abacadabras and Soviet Pimpernel.
The latter of that quartet is a huge price and is worth a look each-way.
There are two key trials for this – the Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown won by ASTERION FORLONGE has produced three of the past seven winners, all trained by Willie Mullins.
That just gives him the edge over Abacadabras who was fourth in last year’s Champion Bumper, a race that also provides many Supreme heroes.
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